Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-04-24

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country


Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-04-14) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 60 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection


Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-04-14 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmed cases. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-14. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.

Reported confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-14. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions


Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-14. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.

Reported confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-14. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-04-14)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-04-14) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.
Country/Region New confirmed cases by infection date Expected change in daily cases Effective reproduction no. Doubling time (days)
Afghanistan 67 (42 – 90) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.5) 21 (6.9 – Inf)
Algeria 98 (69 – 127) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) 160 (12 – Inf)
Argentina 118 (84 – 147) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 26 (9.2 – Inf)
Armenia 60 (35 – 83) Unsure 1.2 (0.8 – 1.5) 29 (7.2 – Inf)
Australia 28 (9 – 46) Likely decreasing 0.7 (0.4 – 1.1) -12 (14 – Inf)
Austria 68 (42 – 90) Decreasing 0.6 (0.4 – 0.8) -8 (Inf – Inf)
Azerbaijan 39 (17 – 57) Unsure 0.9 (0.6 – 1.2) -28 (11 – Inf)
Bahrain 59 (32 – 85) Likely decreasing 0.7 (0.5 – 1) -7 (Inf – Inf)
Bangladesh 400 (341 – 456) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.5) 11 (7.8 – 21)
Belarus 589 (514 – 659) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.4) 16 (10 – 34)
Belgium 1161 (1052 – 1261) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -41 (Inf – Inf)
Bolivia 38 (18 – 56) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.5) 60 (6.8 – Inf)
Bosnia and Herzegovina 34 (15 – 53) Unsure 0.9 (0.6 – 1.2) -29 (9.8 – Inf)
Brazil 2358 (2204 – 2494) Unsure 1 (1 – 1.1) 56 (23 – Inf)
Cameroon 50 (28 – 67) Increasing 1.5 (1 – 1.9) 6.9 (3.7 – 40)
Canada 1692 (1558 – 1812) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 34 (20 – 100)
Chile 404 (347 – 468) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 240 (24 – Inf)
China 25 (6 – 40) Decreasing 0.3 (0.1 – 0.5) -3.2 (Inf – Inf)
Colombia 185 (147 – 223) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 17 (8.6 – 290)
Cote dIvoire 44 (21 – 65) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.5) 26 (6.1 – Inf)
Croatia 30 (13 – 47) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.5 – 1.1) -12 (19 – Inf)
Cuba 55 (31 – 75) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.3) 77 (8.4 – Inf)
Czechia 121 (88 – 155) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) 95 (12 – Inf)
Denmark 169 (130 – 204) Unsure 0.9 (0.8 – 1.1) -120 (22 – Inf)
Djibouti 59 (30 – 82) Unsure 0.9 (0.6 – 1.2) -16 (25 – Inf)
Dominican Republic 236 (192 – 282) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) 70 (16 – Inf)
Ecuador 467 (404 – 529) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.4) 8.6 (6.2 – 14)
Egypt 163 (124 – 198) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 52 (13 – Inf)
Estonia 23 (4 – 39) Unsure 0.9 (0.4 – 1.3) -16 (7.6 – Inf)
Finland 122 (91 – 157) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) 35 (10 – Inf)
France 1945 (1821 – 2085) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 0.9) -13 (Inf – Inf)
Germany 2085 (1944 – 2203) Decreasing 0.8 (0.8 – 0.9) -23 (Inf – Inf)
Ghana 87 (59 – 114) Increasing 1.4 (1.1 – 1.7) 9.8 (5.2 – 90)
Greece 59 (33 – 87) Increasing 1.6 (0.9 – 2.2) 6.9 (3.4 – Inf)
Guinea 65 (37 – 87) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.9 – 1.7) 13 (5.5 – Inf)
Hungary 92 (64 – 120) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) 29 (8.6 – Inf)
Iceland 12 (0 – 23) Unsure 1 (0.3 – 1.6) -9.8 (3.1 – Inf)
India 1410 (1284 – 1500) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 20 (14 – 36)
Indonesia 296 (240 – 341) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) -52 (44 – Inf)
Iran 1291 (1180 – 1392) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 0.9) -30 (Inf – Inf)
Iraq 37 (17 – 56) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.6) 20 (5.2 – Inf)
Ireland 507 (440 – 574) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 0.8) -11 (Inf – Inf)
Israel 329 (273 – 379) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) -34 (59 – Inf)
Italy 2899 (2745 – 3047) Decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -47 (Inf – Inf)
Japan 373 (323 – 434) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 0.9) -18 (Inf – Inf)
Kazakhstan 131 (96 – 161) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.4) 44 (11 – Inf)
Kosovo 36 (15 – 53) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.6) 35 (5.8 – Inf)
Kuwait 120 (87 – 149) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.4) 17 (7.7 – Inf)
Kyrgyzstan 27 (8 – 43) Unsure 1.1 (0.6 – 1.6) 35 (5 – Inf)
Latvia 19 (5 – 33) Unsure 1.4 (0.6 – 2.1) 11 (3.1 – Inf)
Lebanon 12 (0 – 24) Unsure 1.1 (0.1 – 2.1) -2 (1.3 – Inf)
Lithuania 32 (12 – 48) Unsure 1 (0.5 – 1.3) 67 (6 – Inf)
Luxembourg 36 (17 – 55) Unsure 0.9 (0.5 – 1.2) -99 (8.2 – Inf)
Malaysia 58 (34 – 81) Decreasing 0.7 (0.5 – 0.9) -7.2 (Inf – Inf)
Mexico 747 (674 – 829) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 12 (9 – 19)
Moldova 105 (74 – 135) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -35 (23 – Inf)
Morocco 170 (133 – 210) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) 74 (13 – Inf)
Netherlands 837 (737 – 919) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -41 (330 – Inf)
New Zealand 12 (0 – 23) Unsure 1.1 (0.2 – 2) -5.4 (1.6 – Inf)
Niger 14 (0 – 27) Likely decreasing 0.7 (0.1 – 1.2) -4.6 (6.6 – Inf)
Nigeria 82 (54 – 108) Increasing 1.6 (1.2 – 2) 6.9 (4.1 – 20)
North Macedonia 28 (10 – 43) Decreasing 0.7 (0.4 – 1) -7 (Inf – Inf)
Norway 79 (47 – 101) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.2) -51 (16 – Inf)
Oman 110 (77 – 141) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 31 (9 – Inf)
Pakistan 559 (492 – 621) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.4) 15 (9.8 – 30)
Palestine 13 (0 – 27) Unsure 1.5 (0.3 – 2.5) 620 (2 – Inf)
Panama 169 (132 – 212) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) 120 (15 – Inf)
Peru 1182 (1078 – 1272) Unsure 1 (1 – 1.1) -480 (42 – Inf)
Philippines 163 (125 – 199) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 1) -14 (Inf – Inf)
Poland 353 (298 – 406) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 110 (20 – Inf)
Portugal 585 (514 – 652) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 79 (23 – Inf)
Puerto Rico 46 (24 – 66) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.3) -590 (8.7 – Inf)
Qatar 521 (452 – 582) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.4) 12 (8.4 – 21)
Romania 326 (267 – 376) Unsure 0.9 (0.8 – 1.1) -86 (34 – Inf)
Russia 5236 (5050 – 5457) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 13 (10 – 16)
Saudi Arabia 1128 (1025 – 1217) Increasing 1.4 (1.3 – 1.6) 9 (7.3 – 12)
Serbia 284 (233 – 329) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -18 (Inf – Inf)
Singapore 1046 (956 – 1142) Increasing 1.5 (1.3 – 1.6) 8.6 (6.9 – 11)
Slovakia 40 (19 – 58) Unsure 0.9 (0.6 – 1.2) -22 (13 – Inf)
Somalia 46 (23 – 65) Increasing 1.8 (1.2 – 2.4) 5.5 (3.1 – 22)
South Africa 161 (126 – 199) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.4) 22 (9.5 – Inf)
South Korea 16 (1 – 28) Unsure 0.8 (0.2 – 1.3) -7.5 (8.6 – Inf)
Spain 4114 (3914 – 4297) Decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -160 (110 – Inf)
Sweden 550 (485 – 621) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 75 (21 – Inf)
Switzerland 224 (186 – 271) Decreasing 0.7 (0.6 – 0.8) -11 (Inf – Inf)
Thailand 31 (14 – 50) Unsure 1 (0.6 – 1.4) 120 (6.2 – Inf)
Tunisia 16 (2 – 28) Unsure 0.8 (0.4 – 1.2) -10 (8.3 – Inf)
Turkey 4082 (3908 – 4277) Decreasing 1 (0.9 – 1) -89 (Inf – Inf)
Ukraine 427 (365 – 488) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) 660 (26 – Inf)
United Arab Emirates 485 (415 – 549) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 28 (13 – Inf)
United Kingdom 4860 (4655 – 5061) Likely decreasing 1 (0.9 – 1) -170 (160 – Inf)
United Republic of Tanzania 36 (16 – 54) Likely increasing 1.5 (0.9 – 2.1) 8.7 (3.7 – Inf)
United States of America 27705 (27203 – 28214) Decreasing 1 (0.9 – 1) -180 (320 – Inf)
Uruguay 30 (0 – 59) Unsure 1.6 (0.4 – 2.7) 14 (2.3 – Inf)
Uzbekistan 61 (34 – 87) Decreasing 0.7 (0.5 – 1) -8 (Inf – Inf)